Articles by Abhijit Sen

This note outlines the methodological reasons for the (small) differences in estimates of leakages from the public distribution system in 2011-12, as reported in Himanshu and Abhijit Sen (EPW, 16 and 23 November 2013) and Drèze and Khera (EPW, 14 February 2015).

Part-II reports the impact of in-kind food transfers on nutritional intake as measured by calories. Econometric analysis using a simple calorie demand function confirms the significance of variables relating to public distribution system access, controlling for other covariates, in its contribution to calorie intake. Results also suggest that the calorie-elasticity of PDS transfers is twice as large compared to additional out-of-pocket income equal to the cash equivalent of PDS transfers. These are also confirmed by non-parametric analysis of calorie intake of various consumer groups. Although preliminary, these results suggest caution in advocating cash transfers as substitute of in-kind transfers. Finally, the paper evaluates concerns about the financial implications of the minimum support price-PDS system in light of the recently enacted National Food Security Act.

The National Advisory Council has given its final proposals on the proposed National Food Security Act. A government-appointed committee (the Rangarajan Committee) has also given its response to these proposals. Both these proposals agree on the desirability of a universal nfsa but finally propose targeting at the poor as defined by the Tendulkar Committee. This has been justified in view of the constraints set by foodgrain procurement and management. This paper argues that a universal nfsa is not only desirable, it is also a more efficient and feasible way to ensure food security for all. While presenting a critique of some of the assumptions made by these two proposals, this paper also offers an alternative which is near universal and feasible without using below poverty line targeting that has proved to be a colossal failure. This alternative, based on the results of a recent pilot for the bpl Census and which takes on board the concerns of its detractors, can be a way forward to a universal nfsa.

The 55th round (1999-2000) of the NSS used a different methodology from all previous rounds and arrived at lower poverty estimates. The consensus from earlier NSS rounds, that poverty reduction had been set back during the 1990s, was challenged by this data. This was bolstered by some 'adjustments', which although agreeing that the 55th round had overestimated poverty reduction, claimed that the number of poor had nonetheless fallen by 30-45 million. However, a detailed re-examination shows that these 'adjustments' were not correct. The poverty ratio fell at most by 3 percentage points between 1993-94 and 1999-2000, and it is likely that the number of poor increased over this period. The main lesson is that poverty estimates are very sensitive to both survey design and post-survey analysis. The first of a two-part article.

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