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Arun Kumar

Measuring Illegal Outflows from the Indian Economy

Some Methodological Issues
Vol - XLVII No. 39, September 29, 2012 | Arun Kumar

The paper "An Empirical Study on the Transfer of Black Money from India: 1948-2008" (EPW, 9 April 2011) by Dev Kar suffers from defi nitional and methodological fl aws. As a result, it is not very clear what is being captured in the estimate - illicit fi nancial fl ows, gross capital fl ight or net capital fl ight.

Tackling the Current Global Economic and Financial Crisis: Beyond Demand Management

Vol - XLIV No. 13, March 28, 2009 | Arun Kumar

This paper highlights the depth of the crisis confronting the global economy. It presents the various ways of understanding demand deficiency, which was the underlying feature of the earlier downturns in capitalist economies. A resolution of the problems faced then was possible with demand management using Keynesian tools. But the current economic crisis is different from the past ones and the lessons learnt from the past may not be applicable to solving the crisis of 2009. The arguments presented here imply that demand management alone will not work because capitalism faces a basic crisis. One implication is that we need redistribution, but that is not on anyone's agenda today.

Faltering National and Global Growth Prospects

Vol - XLIII No. 28, July 12, 2008 | Arun Kumar

What are the causes of the sudden adverse change in the economic scenario in India and the world? Growing disparities, financial uncertainty, a weakening dollar, the falling share of labour in aggregate income and rampant speculation in commodities are together forcing the economic slowdown. Rising disparities are aggravating the tendency towards "underconsumption", while the high rates of surplus generation driving investment are likely to result in "overproduction".

Recruitment and Weeding Out Process

Vol - XLIII No. 08, February 23, 2008 | Arun Kumar

The article on job recruitment (October 13, 2007) makes interesting arguments but there could be a basic flaw in the methodology, which prevents one from concluding that there is a bias in job recruitment.

Culture, Development and the Cultural Capital of Farce

Vol - XLI No. 40, October 07, 2006 | Arun Kumar

The case of the musahars of Bihar, a largely landless caste referred to as the "dalits among dalits", who continue to work as bonded labourers highlights the axiom that denial of development to certain groups has been an inexplicable part of the nation's culture of development. In explaining the dismal failure and collapse of many imaginative development schemes, it is the role of state-driven development paradigms led by local elites and former landlords that needs to be squarely addressed. To explore the processes whereby systematic inequalities were perpetuated, this paper emphasises the case of village Shri Rampur in Gaya district of Bihar.

Black Economy, Underestimation of Unemployment and Budget 2005-06

Vol - XLI No. 30, July 29, 2006 | Arun Kumar

This paper analyses the effects of the black economy on the estimation of employment in order to throw light on the true extent of unemployment in the economy. This is done through an analytical presentation of the issues involved. The paper also analyses the union budget 2005-06 to see whether the steps proposed are adequate to deal with the problem.

Violence and Political Culture

Vol - XXXVIII No. 47, November 22, 2003 | Arun Kumar

Violence, no matter in what name it is courted - tactic, expediency or compulsion - blurs the distinction between emancipatory and retrogressive, the Left and the Right. As a political method it functions on the principle of absolute dualism, permanent war between the good and the evil god and satan. The Ultra Left in Bihar began its career by following the violent path already taken by a number of individuals between 1967 and 1971. It picked up the argument of the 'inevitability of violence' involved in individualised cases of resistance and turned it into a 'party-line', a generalised political wisdom, into a social good. Not surprisingly, in the Ultra Left's extreme vision there was little space for self-criticism, doubts, ambivalence and thus for dialogue and democracy itself. Today the Ultra Left, unable to break the vicious circle of violence, is doomed to follow the politics of marginality.

Illegal Trade and Capital Flows

Vol - XXXVIII No. 09, March 01, 2003 | Arun Kumar

Illegal Trade and Capital Flows An Assessment of Contraband Trade and Capital between India and Sri Lanka by M Sarvanathan; Kumaran Book House, Colombo. pp xvii + 197.

India at the Seattle Meeting

Vol - XXXV No. 03, January 15, 2000 | Arun Kumar



The Black Economy

Vol - XXXIV No. 12, March 20, 1999 | Arun Kumar

The major macro-economic problems of the 1970s and the 1980s were integrally linked to the growing phenomenon of black income generation. The black economy should, therefore, have been a significant factor in analyses of the economy. Its non-inclusion in analyses resulted in a partial understanding of the Indian economy and often incorrect policy pronouncements. This paper describes the institutional practices of the black economy and incorporates it into the short run macro analysis of the Indian economy. The need to incorporate the black economy is not simply an empirical matter, but a theoretical necessity. The circular flow of incomes changes with the black economy. Black incomes are first defined. Transfers are not included, but their implications for national incomes, savings and velocity of circulation are presented. The theoretical analysis yields counter intuitive results with regard to tax evasion, investment and savings, subsidies, balance of payments, etc. The empirical trends since the 1970s, say, with regard to unemployment, inflation, the fiscal gap, current account deficit or investments and savings can be better explained using this framework.