ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

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B B Bhattacharya (1945–2017)

Barid Baran Bhattacharya, BB to his colleagues and friends, passed away on 14 February 2017. His sad and untimely demise has been painful to those of us who had worked closely with him over the years. Although he had been fighting the emperor of maladies for some time, he seemed to be getting the...

Boom and Bust?

India's post-reform growth experience can be separated into three distinct growth episodes. The first growth episode was from 1993 to 2002 and was characterised by a set of predictable informal relationships ("ordered deals") between political and economic elites, which were relatively open as well. The second episode was from 2002 to 2010, and deals in this period became increasingly closed, leading to negative feedback effects along with structural retrogression of the economy. The third episode, beginning in 2011, was one of an incipient growth deceleration, and was characterised by increasingly disordered deals. This paper argues that this deceleration is the outcome of two separate phenomena: (1) increasing political delegitimation of the growth process that was seen as highly predatory and corruption-intensive; and (2) the pushback from accountability institutions in the post-2010 period. For growth to return, more than economic reforms or infrastructure spending, it is necessary for a realignment of the relationships between political and economic elites and between elites and non-elites such that there is a return to "open ordered deals".

Reforms and Regional Inequality in India

This article analyses the impact of pro-market reforms on regional inequality in India, both at the aggregate and the sectoral level. It draws on the "new economic geography" literature that evaluates the impact of reforms on regional inequality in a country, in terms of the centripetal and centrifugal forces generated in the economy. The results show that regional inequality in India remained largely unchanged during the 1980s but rose dramatically after the adoption of the reforms. This is mainly due to the fact that the per capita output from the industrial and services sectors showed convergence before the reforms and divergence afterwards.

Forecasting State Domestic Product and Inflation

At present, states in India make their own assessment regarding economic growth for their planning and budgeting purposes. These assessments are mostly derived from judgments rather than from serious econometric modelling. The regional econometric model developed in this paper aims to forecast growth rates of the aggregate and sectoral GSDP for the three states. It attempts to capture the medium-run trends and characteristics of the economy of each state, taking into consideration the structural changes in the Indian economy during the period.
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